PENGUJIAN MODEL MULTIPLICATIVE HOLT WINTER’S EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING UNTUK MEMPREDIKSI JUMLAH PENUMPANG KERETA API DI JABODETABEK (Studi Kasus: Jumlah Penumpang Kereta Api di Jabodetabek Periode Januari 2018 – Desember 2021)

NINGSIH, LIAMI (2022) PENGUJIAN MODEL MULTIPLICATIVE HOLT WINTER’S EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING UNTUK MEMPREDIKSI JUMLAH PENUMPANG KERETA API DI JABODETABEK (Studi Kasus: Jumlah Penumpang Kereta Api di Jabodetabek Periode Januari 2018 – Desember 2021). Other thesis, Universitas Pesantren Tinggi Darul 'Ulum.

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Abstract

Train is one of the most common modes of transportation used by the public to travel. The data of the number of train’s passengers in Jabodetabek for all types of classes is a time series data which has a seasonal pattern. However, in 2019, the Covid-19 outbreak occurred which had an impact on all sector include train’s passengers. Therefore, in this thesis, the Multiplicative Holt – Winter exponential smoothing model will be tested to predict the number of train passengers in Jabodetabek on Januari 2018 – Desember 2021 periode. Holt – Winter exponential smoothing is one of the prediction method which has predict the time series data which has seasonal pattern. Holt – Winter exponential smoothing has three smoothing parameters, namely α, β, and γ. In parameter selection, RMSE and SSE will be used to optimize α, β, and γ. Next, the determination of the optimal parameters will be selected based on the MAPE value generated after the optimization process. In this study, the optimal parameters were obtained, namely α = 0,97, β = 0,03, and γ = 1 with the resulting SSE value of 4.81E+08 and the MAPE value of 9.98%. Keywords: forecasting, Multiplicative model, Holt – Winter exponential smoothing

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